We’ve all seen the memes: January is the time when our out-of-office messages give way to “circling back” emails about unfinished business left over from the pre-holiday frenzy. And while everyone is sending and receiving a fair amount of those, the start of 2023 on the TV beat has been near total radio silence.
Outside of the plethora of premiere dates and first-look clips that have been unspooling at a rate comparable to a Randy Johnson fastball as networks and streamers fire their marketing machines back up, the breaking news front has been relatively quiet. Much of this can be chalked up to everyone returning from holiday break and getting back into the groove, but the post-holiday news cycle usually comes back with a frenzy after a day or two to settle back in.
For me, the lack of new series orders to start the year — yes, there were more than a few to close out 2022 — makes me think of the state of Peak TV. According to the last update from FX — shout-out to exec vp research Julie Piepenkotter for her tireless work — the volume of U.S. scripted originals hit an all-time high in 2021 with 559 series. FX CEO John Landgraf, who famously coined the term “Peak TV” at a memorable Television Critics Association tour stop a few years ago, predicted in August that the true peak would come in 2022. The first half of last year saw 357 English-language scripted originals, up 16 percent from 2021’s record pace. Since then, the economy has been in a downturn, and companies including Warner Bros. Discovery have been in cost-savings mode.
Scripted originals have been getting “unrenewed,” a term that I started using in 2020 when platforms began reversing course on pickups amid the COVID-19 pandemic. (RIP, GLOW.) Only this time, the unrenewals and some surprising cancellations (looking at you, Westworld) have been financially motivated instead of driven by the logistical challenges of filming during the pandemic. Shows have also been vanishing from streaming platforms in other efforts to find cost savings as the price for top talent, showrunners and production continues to escalate amid steep competition.
FX has yet to release its annual look at the state of Peak TV — I’d expect that to come this month at the first in-person TCA since the pandemic — but the slow news cycle to start the year may as well be a preview of what to expect in 2023. HBO Max and HBO are more unified than ever before when it comes to developing originals, effectively reducing the number of buyers by at least one. Others, like broadcast networks, have been bulking up on lower-cost unscripted programming for some time. Speaking of broadcast, The CW — which I’d predict gets rebranded this year by Nexstar — under former Pop TV president Brad Schwartz is tasked with making the network profitable for the first time, a signal that low-cost foreign imports will be favorited over pricey U.S. originals. (The network has only 11 originals left from its Mark Pedowitz era, three of which are in final seasons.) Then there’s the fallout from the Warner Bros. Discovery merger that has former cable powerhouses TNT and TBS almost completely out of the scripted originals business. (Oh how I do love to poke fun at Snowpiercer, which may now be one of the few posterchildren to truly define the insanity of the Peak TV climate.)
Elsewhere, Peacock is still in search of an identity and moved one of its few shows to mildly break through (Girls5eva) to Netflix, where it will almost undoubtedly become the next Cobra Kai. (Raise your hand if you subscribed to YouTube Red.) Speaking of Netflix, the streaming giant showed it wasn’t immune after a brutal hit to its shares in 2022 prompted layoffs and the launch of its (gasp!) ad-supported tier. Even Disney is showing a willingness to make radical changes now that Bob Iger back is back in his captain’s chair — albeit a little less comfortable than he left it.
Sure, there will be more Marvel and Star Wars shows but don’t bet that even the biggest of franchises can survive the uncertain economic headwinds ahead. Game of Thrones creator George R.R. Martin suggested as much recently when he wrote that a few of the spinoffs that were in development had been shelved.
I’m not going to further jinx my fellow TV reporters working alongside me in the breaking news trenches but I’m going to enjoy the slow (for now) news cycle and look forward to seeing just how the course correction — as execs like David Nevins have called it — shakes out. Will this mean fewer first-year shows landing speedy spinoffs and an end to franchise thirst? Not likely, but here’s to finding the real peak in Peak TV in 2023. In the meantime, you can listen to me ramble alongside the great Dan Fienberg on our weekly podcast, TV’s Top 5.
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